Kerry warns North Korea
‘‘It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: We will defend our allies.’’
Secretary of State John Kerry, in Seoul, urged Kim Jong-un not to
proceed with a test missile launching. Secretary of State John Kerry on
Friday warned the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, not to proceed with a
test launching of his country’s Musudan missile, which he said would
inflame ‘‘an already volatile, potentially dangerous situation.’’
POOL PHOTO BY PAUL J. RICHARDS Secretary
of State John Kerry arriving Friday in Seoul, where he was met by the
South Korean envoy, Sung Y. Kim, left, and the deputy Foreign Ministry
director, Seung Hyun-moon.
But Mr. Kerry also stressed that the United States was open to
negotiations with North Korea if it committed itself to eventual
denuclearization.
The missile has a range of up to 4,000 kilometers, or 2,500 miles, according to U.S. officials, which means it has the potential to strike targets in South Korea, all of Japan and even Guam, a U.S. island territory in the western Pacific. South Korean officials said earlier this past week that North Korea had made preparations to test the missile, and a U.S. official told reporters onFriday that a launching could come at any time.
There has been speculation that Mr. Kim would order the launching to commemorate the anniversary on Monday of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather and the founder of North Korea, or that it might be fired while Mr. Kerry was in the region.
‘‘If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,’’ Mr. Kerry said at a news conference after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea.
‘‘It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: We will defend our allies,’’ Mr. Kerry added.
U.S. officials have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of provocations and miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks.
‘‘Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,’’ Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the U.S. and South Korean military capabilities.
With tensions running high on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kerry arrived in the South Korean capital Friday in an effort to reassure American allies in the region that the United States remained committed to their defense. It is his first visit to South Korea.
Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China to urge officials there to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear arms program.
Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization.
‘‘They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks and those talks can begin,’’ Mr. Kerry said. ‘‘But they have to be really serious.’’
At the same time, Mr. Kerry applauded efforts by South Korea, which has called for dialogue with officials in the North.
The disclosure onThursday that an assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency had concluded with ‘‘moderate confidence’’ that North Korea was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead, albeit an unreliable one, was the subject of much attention here.
An American official who briefed reporters here and who is familiar with North Korea’s military capabilities asserted that was ‘‘premature’’ to conclude that it had mastered the challenges of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and connecting it to a multistage missile.
The missile has a range of up to 4,000 kilometers, or 2,500 miles, according to U.S. officials, which means it has the potential to strike targets in South Korea, all of Japan and even Guam, a U.S. island territory in the western Pacific. South Korean officials said earlier this past week that North Korea had made preparations to test the missile, and a U.S. official told reporters onFriday that a launching could come at any time.
There has been speculation that Mr. Kim would order the launching to commemorate the anniversary on Monday of the birth of Kim Il-sung, his grandfather and the founder of North Korea, or that it might be fired while Mr. Kerry was in the region.
‘‘If Kim Jong-un decides to launch a missile, whether it is across the Sea of Japan or some other direction, he will be choosing willfully to ignore the entire international community,’’ Mr. Kerry said at a news conference after meeting with President Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se of South Korea.
‘‘It’s not going to change our current position, which is very, very clear: We will defend our allies,’’ Mr. Kerry added.
U.S. officials have not detected efforts by the North Koreans to mobilize forces or make serious war preparations. And Mr. Kerry said the greatest risk would be a conflict that arose out of a series of provocations and miscalculations by North Korea, not a deliberate attack. Still, he underscored the risks.
‘‘Kim Jong-un needs to understand, as I think he probably does, what the outcome of the conflict would be,’’ Mr. Kerry said in a pointed reference to the U.S. and South Korean military capabilities.
With tensions running high on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kerry arrived in the South Korean capital Friday in an effort to reassure American allies in the region that the United States remained committed to their defense. It is his first visit to South Korea.
Besides stops in South Korea and Japan, Mr. Kerry will also visit China to urge officials there to persuade the North to abandon its nuclear arms program.
Reiterating the longstanding American position, Mr. Kerry said the United States would never accept North Korea as a nuclear state. Talks involving the United States and North Korea, he said, could take place only if Mr. Kim agreed to move to denuclearization.
‘‘They simply have to be prepared to live up to their international obligations and standards, which they have accepted, and make it clear they will move to denuclearization as part of the talks and those talks can begin,’’ Mr. Kerry said. ‘‘But they have to be really serious.’’
At the same time, Mr. Kerry applauded efforts by South Korea, which has called for dialogue with officials in the North.
The disclosure onThursday that an assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency had concluded with ‘‘moderate confidence’’ that North Korea was capable of launching a missile with a nuclear warhead, albeit an unreliable one, was the subject of much attention here.
An American official who briefed reporters here and who is familiar with North Korea’s military capabilities asserted that was ‘‘premature’’ to conclude that it had mastered the challenges of miniaturizing a nuclear warhead and connecting it to a multistage missile.
Furthermore, the U.S. director of national intelligence, James R.
Clapper Jr., released a statement following the disclosure on Thursday,
saying that the assessment did not represent a consensus of the U.S.
intelligence community and that ‘‘North Korea has not yet demonstrated
the full range of capabilities necessary for a nuclear armed missile.’’
Nonetheless, outside experts said that the assessment’s conclusions could explain why the U.S. secretary of defense, Chuck Hagel, had announced in recent weeks that the Pentagon was bolstering long-range antimissile defenses in Alaska and California, intended to protect the West Coast, and rushing another antimissile system, originally not set for deployment until 2015, to Guam.
At a hearing Thursday with the House Intelligence Committee, Mr. Clapper referred to ‘‘extremely belligerent, aggressive public rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea’’ by the North’s young president. He made it clear that getting inside Mr. Kim’s head, and understanding his goals, had been particularly frustrating.
He suggested that while Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father had had clear motives — to periodically threaten the world with nuclear crises, then wait to get paid in cash, food or equipment to lower the rhetoric — the younger Mr. Kim apparently intended to demonstrate both to North Koreans and to the international community that North Korea deserves respect as a nuclear power.
‘‘His primary objective is to consolidate, affirm his power,’’ Mr. Clapper told the House committee, adding that ‘‘the belligerent rhetoric of late, I think, is designed for both an internal and an external audience.’’
Asked whether the North Korean leader had an ‘‘endgame,’’ Mr. Clapper said, ‘‘I don’t think, really, he has much of an end game other than to some how elicit recognition from the world and specifically, most importantly, the United States, of North Korea as a rival on an international scene, as a nuclear power, and that that entitles him to negotiation and to accommodation, and presumably for aid.’’
On Friday, Mr. Kerry stressed that the United States wanted China, to which he would travel on Saturday, to use its influence with North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program.
The United States also wants China to crack down on the illicit flow of funds that move through front companies and banks that the North Korean government is using to support its nuclear weapons program, according to a senior State Department official who traveled on Mr. Kerry’s plane and spoke on the condition of anonymity, following diplomatic protocol.
‘‘We want to see them do what we do, what the Japanese do, what the South Koreans do, which is to stick to U.N. Security Council resolutions’’ and ‘‘stop those money trails,’’ the official said.
Whether the Chinese will prove more helpful then they have in the past remains unclear. The United States has long sought to enlist China’s cooperation in reining in North Korea’s nuclear aspirations. But that has not stopped North Korea from conducting three nuclear tests and testing ballistic missiles.
‘‘We are not privy to conversations between China and North Korea,’’ said the senior State Department official, who stressed that the United States wanted China ‘‘to put more sense of urgency’’ in its discussions with North Korea.
Complicating the equation, the United States does not have a good sense of how decisions are being made in Pyongyang.
A working assumption is that Mr. Kim’s bellicose statements are intended to shore up his power at homeand assure the North Korean military that it will retain the first claim on resources — what analysts call the ‘‘military first’’ policy.
But that raises the question of how susceptible a North Korean leader who is preoccupied with building up his authority at home might be to outside pressure, let alone the disarmament agenda urged by the United States and its allies.
‘‘If you believe in Korean culture, it is difficult to believe that a 29-, 30-year-old would have complete control over bureaucracy, over military, over giving orders,’’ the State Department official said.
‘‘His real goal, of course, is regime survival,’’ the official said. ‘‘That North Korea as an entity, as a nation, should survive with a Kim legacy. So I still believe that is the ultimate goal and that is what he is trying to do.’’
Nonetheless, outside experts said that the assessment’s conclusions could explain why the U.S. secretary of defense, Chuck Hagel, had announced in recent weeks that the Pentagon was bolstering long-range antimissile defenses in Alaska and California, intended to protect the West Coast, and rushing another antimissile system, originally not set for deployment until 2015, to Guam.
At a hearing Thursday with the House Intelligence Committee, Mr. Clapper referred to ‘‘extremely belligerent, aggressive public rhetoric towards the United States and South Korea’’ by the North’s young president. He made it clear that getting inside Mr. Kim’s head, and understanding his goals, had been particularly frustrating.
He suggested that while Mr. Kim’s grandfather and father had had clear motives — to periodically threaten the world with nuclear crises, then wait to get paid in cash, food or equipment to lower the rhetoric — the younger Mr. Kim apparently intended to demonstrate both to North Koreans and to the international community that North Korea deserves respect as a nuclear power.
‘‘His primary objective is to consolidate, affirm his power,’’ Mr. Clapper told the House committee, adding that ‘‘the belligerent rhetoric of late, I think, is designed for both an internal and an external audience.’’
Asked whether the North Korean leader had an ‘‘endgame,’’ Mr. Clapper said, ‘‘I don’t think, really, he has much of an end game other than to some how elicit recognition from the world and specifically, most importantly, the United States, of North Korea as a rival on an international scene, as a nuclear power, and that that entitles him to negotiation and to accommodation, and presumably for aid.’’
On Friday, Mr. Kerry stressed that the United States wanted China, to which he would travel on Saturday, to use its influence with North Korea to end its nuclear weapons program.
The United States also wants China to crack down on the illicit flow of funds that move through front companies and banks that the North Korean government is using to support its nuclear weapons program, according to a senior State Department official who traveled on Mr. Kerry’s plane and spoke on the condition of anonymity, following diplomatic protocol.
‘‘We want to see them do what we do, what the Japanese do, what the South Koreans do, which is to stick to U.N. Security Council resolutions’’ and ‘‘stop those money trails,’’ the official said.
Whether the Chinese will prove more helpful then they have in the past remains unclear. The United States has long sought to enlist China’s cooperation in reining in North Korea’s nuclear aspirations. But that has not stopped North Korea from conducting three nuclear tests and testing ballistic missiles.
‘‘We are not privy to conversations between China and North Korea,’’ said the senior State Department official, who stressed that the United States wanted China ‘‘to put more sense of urgency’’ in its discussions with North Korea.
Complicating the equation, the United States does not have a good sense of how decisions are being made in Pyongyang.
A working assumption is that Mr. Kim’s bellicose statements are intended to shore up his power at homeand assure the North Korean military that it will retain the first claim on resources — what analysts call the ‘‘military first’’ policy.
But that raises the question of how susceptible a North Korean leader who is preoccupied with building up his authority at home might be to outside pressure, let alone the disarmament agenda urged by the United States and its allies.
‘‘If you believe in Korean culture, it is difficult to believe that a 29-, 30-year-old would have complete control over bureaucracy, over military, over giving orders,’’ the State Department official said.
‘‘His real goal, of course, is regime survival,’’ the official said. ‘‘That North Korea as an entity, as a nation, should survive with a Kim legacy. So I still believe that is the ultimate goal and that is what he is trying to do.’’
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